Date of Conferral

10-13-2025

Degree

Ph.D.

School

Public Policy and Administration

Advisor

Steven Matarelli

Abstract

Political trust matters for good governance and democracy. Although Malawi's constitution affirms trust as a key component of authority, Afrobarometer surveys have revealed broad declines, hindering democratic consolidation and the achievement of the long-term Vision 2063 development goals. Prior researchers studying the country have fixated on qualitative analyses and overlooked affective polarization and differentiation across government branches. The purpose of this cross-sectional quantitative study was to examine the predictive relationship between perceived government performance, responsiveness, corruption, affective polarization, democratic satisfaction, and trust in the Malawi president, parliament, and judiciary, using generalized linear models to apply Easton's political support theory to five Afrobarometer surveys from 2016 to 2025. Results suggest that performance is a prime predictor of presidential trust (χ² (1) = 523.62, p < .001, OR = 2.01) with “expect presidents to steward the economy” (χ² (1) = 72.49, p < .001, OR = 1.38), “parliament to tackle job creation” (χ² (1) = 14.23, p < .001, OR = 1.15), and “judiciary to safeguard distributive justice” (χ² (1) = 14.34, p < .001, OR = 1.15) having higher predictive odds. Democratic satisfaction predicted trust, elevating the odds for the president, parliament, and judiciary by 19%, 23%, and 23%, respectively. Presidential trust was vulnerable to corruption (χ² (1) = 47.08, p < .001, OR = 0.76), and partisan alignment (χ² (1) = 22.42, p < .001, OR = 0.48) and was prominent in crises. Policy makers could foster positive social change through tailored reforms, bolstering democratic governance and aligning with Vision 2063. Their actions could improve governmental responsiveness, foster institutional legitimacy, and mitigate corruption.

Download

Included in

Public Policy Commons

Share

 
COinS