Date of Conferral

11-5-2024

Degree

Ph.D.

School

Public Policy and Administration

Advisor

Lori Salgado

Abstract

Despite efforts worldwide to increase diversity, women continue to be underrepresented in the most senior leadership and management positions. The aim of this study was to provide insight into whether specific variables increased female representation at the most senior levels of the U.S. Foreign Service. A quantitative correlational study was completed using an autoregressive integrated moving average model in SPSS. Following that, time series forecasts were run in SPSS and AI generated in Google Gemini and Microsoft Copilot, to create a forecast for the female promotion rate in the Senior Foreign Service (the equivalent of the Senior Executive Service) within the U.S. Department of State for the next 5 years (2024-2028) based on aggregate time series data. The data set consisted of summary-level data from the State Department on the careers of 4,525 foreign service officers spanning 9 years (2015–2023). The officers were employed within 94 types of career series and had competed for promotion to the highest level of service. The forecast rate of promotion for women to the Senior Foreign Service ranged from a low of 4.19% (Microsoft Copilot) to a high of 5.23% (SPSS) for the next 5 years. The study may advance positive social change by bringing awareness that policies, such as forced promotion, ongoing mentoring, and career development training, although important, may not be as impactful as expected. Policymakers may need to consider additional methods or programs that contribute to the factors that a qualifications review board or promotion board ranks when determining whom to promote. Positive social change may result in increased job satisfaction and improvements in work-life balance.

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