Date of Conferral

7-15-2026

Date of Award

July 2026

Degree

Ph.D.

School

Public Policy and Administration

Advisor

Paul Rutledge

Abstract

Super political action committee (Super PAC) spending has become a prominent feature of U.S. elections, yet limited research had examined how independent expenditures related to electoral success in competitive U.S. House races and whether that relationship varied by candidates’ abortion policy positions in the post-Dobbs era. Prior research has shown that Super PAC independent expenditures expanded sharply after Citizens United and can influence candidate visibility in competitive races, yet findings on whether that spending translates into electoral success have been mixed, and few studies had examined it in relation to candidates' abortion positions after Dobbs. The purpose of this correlational quantitative study was to examine the relationship between Super PAC independent expenditures and general election outcomes for U.S. House candidates from 2018 through 2024 and to determine whether abortion policy stance moderated that relationship and whether those effects differed between the pre-Dobbs and post-Dobbs periods. Kingdon’s multiple streams framework served as the theoretical foundation. Results indicated that supportive Super PAC spending significantly increased the likelihood of electoral success, whereas opposition spending reduced the likelihood of winning. Abortion policy stance moderated the relationship between opposition spending and electoral success, but not supportive spending. No significant differences were found between pre-Dobbs and post-Dobbs periods. These findings may support positive social change by informing discussions of campaign finance transparency, electoral fairness, and democratic accountability.

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